The Changing Relationship Between Raw Cards and PSA 10 Prices
One of the more interesting developments in the hobby over the past few months has been the changing relationship between raw prices and PSA 10 values.
While raw prices are naturally more difficult to track, the broader trend is still worth paying attention to. Not every raw copy is PSA 10-worthy, but changes in the spread between the two can reveal quite a bit about collector sentiment, grading expectations, and market supply.
Pikachu ex may be the clearest example of this trend. As supply continued to enter the market, the premium attached to PSA 10 copies contracted significantly. Similar pressure has emerged across Ascended Heroes, where growing supply has weighed on graded prices.
Both raw and graded copies of Charizard ex and Mewtwo ex have continued to decline, suggesting softer demand across those segments of the market. Likewise, Phantasmal Flames has struggled to establish a durable price floor.
Of course, raw prices are naturally more difficult to track. Unlike PSA 10 sales, not every raw copy is equal, and condition can vary substantially from card to card. Even so, the broader trend remains worth watching.
Moreover, an important variable is PSA's temporary closure of Value-tier submissions. Once lower-cost submissions become available again, the market could see another influx of supply, potentially reshaping the relationship between raw and graded prices once again.
Another interesting possibility is that strength in raw prices could serve as a leading indicator of future demand. As collectors become more comfortable purchasing raw copies with the intention of grading them, rising raw prices may eventually translate into additional PSA 10 supply entering the market.
It could also suggest that buyers are becoming more selective about the premiums they are willing to pay. Rather than chasing the highest-graded examples, collectors may be prioritizing affordability, liquidity, and the opportunity to create value through grading.
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